Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza But Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost lengthy conflict in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's summit in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

David Oconnell
David Oconnell

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