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The historic Ashes series may offer a reason to cheer, but this series will also see the Aussie side host more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Older Squad Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have almost every player near a Test side being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I can’t remember ever being so confident at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only sit out the first Test, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a far greater change with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of getting injured early in series and a pattern of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might experience transition setting in much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is no place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can hear that train approaching, coming around the bend, and England ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.