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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.